We had a brief chat with Oilex management this morning and can provide the following interpretation of events our side:
1. Firstly, we have been asked about Republic’s sales and whether there is anything to read into this. We cannot comment for Republic save to make the point that they reduced down on the equity side from 13.7% to just over 9%. Republic of course still hold the loan with warrant attachments and given that the warrant element is now resolutely in the money, should they convert this proportion their direct equity stake would actually increase relative to the prior position. Taking advantage of this situation is good risk management and we cannot criticise in any sense this approach.
2. As per the RNS of 5th November per HERE the key line to pay heed of is this – “Notwithstanding recent events, the Company will continue to seek an amicable solution in good faith for all parties provided that any path forward meets our obligations to the GoI to develop Cambay.” Silence by the company at present should not be taken as no progress and we believe that given that the arbitration procedure is now finally in motion that the most likely outcome will be a negotiated solution. Per our stance HERE re our assessment of value, under almost any scenario of a negotiated settlement there looks to be material upside for shareholders given that our base case price per share under Scenario One is near 3 times the current stock price.
Finally, it was made clear to us this morning that management are optimistic that a resolution will be found with GSPC and we believe we are thus now in the “last innings” of this protracted dispute. Accordingly, we were pleased to be afforded the opportunity to add to our position yesterday at sub 0.3p and will add again on any weakness.
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